Working Papers

The Impact of World War II Army Service on Income and Mobility in the 1960s by Ethnoracial Group

with Andreas Ferrara, Price Fishback, and Misty Heggeness

NBER Working Paper 33382, Revise and Resubmit Explorations in Economic History

We analyze the impact of World War II service on income and mobility among male Army and Army Airforce veterans from various racial and ethnic groups, using linked 1940 Census, WWII enlistment, and 1969 administrative tax return data. The dataset includes non-Hispanic White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, and Native American men, providing insight into underexplored groups. Ordinary Least Squares estimates indicate that, compared to non-Army men within their groups, Army veterans earned higher incomes and were less likely to migrate across counties between 1940 and 1969, particularly among non-Hispanic Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics. To address potential selection bias, we applied a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, comparing men just eligible for service to those slightly too young. These estimates revealed that, in 1969, Army veterans generally had lower adjusted gross incomes than non-Army counterparts among non-Hispanic Whites, Blacks, and Asians, while Hispanic and Native American veterans earned slightly more. Income effects varied by type of income. Veterans also showed lower rates of county migration, particularly among non-Hispanic Whites, Asians, and Native Americans. Migration differences were minor for Blacks and Hispanics. These findings highlight nuanced outcomes of WWII service across diverse racial and ethnic groups.

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Eliminating the Competition? Evidence from the Great Recession and 287(g) Agreements

with Brianna Felegi 

February 2025

Does increased labor market scarcity lead to local cooperation with immigrant deportations? We answer this by evaluating the impact of the great recession on the likelihood that local law enforcement will partner with immigration authorities through 287(g) agreements. Using a difference in differences specification we find that a one percentage point increase in a commuting zone’s great recession driven unemployment rate leads to a one percentage point increase in the likelihood of signing a 287(g) agreement. Additionally, we find that this relationship is concentrated among commuting zones with a higher pre-recession immigrant population share and minority share, with no statistically significant difference in this relationship for commuting zones with high versus low measures of pre-recession crime. When we examine heterogeneity by industry composition, we find areas with more construction employment were more likely to form 287(g) agreements, while those with more agricultural employment were less likely to do so.  These results are consistent with adverse labor market shocks generating more anti-immigrant sentiment that leads to more support for cooperation with deportation authorities, however this support could be muted by local business interests.

Exposure to the Military and Later Life Outcomes

March 2024

I use a series of military base closures that occurred during the late 1980s and 1990s under the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) process to investigate the effect of adolescent exposure to adults with military service history on later life outcomes using two-stage least squares.  I find that a one percentage point increase in exposure to same gender adults with a military service history leads to between a 1 and 2 percentage point increase in own probability of joining the military and graduating high school, but also being arrested future in life and not going to college. Additionally, there is substantial heterogeneity in the effect of exposure to the military. I find that the effect of exposure to the military on future military service is statistically significantly larger for youth who turned 18 before 9/11 and for youth who had above median math-verbal scores on the ASVAB.  Since exposure also effected education attainment, this suggests that exposure to the military could have lead youth with the most to gain from education into more high school completion but less overall college attainment.

The Relationship Between Teen Social Environment and Beliefs of Own Education, Criminal Justice, Early Parenthood, and Mortality Outcomes

November 2023 (Under Review)

I investigate how a teen’s social environment is related to their beliefs of future outcomes by merging the NLSY97 with census tract outcomes from the 2000 Decennial Census. Holding ability, family resources, and traumatic events constant, I find more exposure to crime or sex at young ages is positively correlated with belief of death, arrest, and early parenthood, and negatively correlated with belief of education attainment. While more exposure to more education attainment is positively correlated with belief of own education attainment. Furthermore, holding the same controls and social environment constant, beliefs strongly predict teen’s later education, arrest, and early parenthood outcomes.

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Is College Worth It For Me? Beliefs, Access to Funding and Inequality in Higher Education 

In the US, the bachelor's attainment rate of White high-socioeconomic status youth is much higher than the bachelor's attainment rate of Hispanic, Black, and low-socioeconomic status youth. This is true even among students with high academic scores. For high-scorers, how much of these gaps in bachelor's attainment can be explained by differences in subjective beliefs about own academic ability?  Relatedly, Is targeting information and funding to low socioeconomic status high-scorers more efficient at narrowing overall bachelor's attainment gaps than universal policies like free college for all, or a tracking system in the US? To answer these questions, I  estimate the distribution of subjective prior beliefs about own ability using self reported beliefs about college outcomes from the NLSY97 and a dynamic discrete choice model with heterogeneous financial support and beliefs about ability. I find that for Black high-scorers beliefs play almost no statistically significant role in explaining gaps. However, for Hispanic and low socioeconomic status youth, differences in beliefs explain 38-49% of the gap relative to White high-socioeconomic status high-scorers. In the policy analysis I show that the targeted policy is the most efficient at closing gaps and that it closes overall gaps in bachelor's attainment  by 25% to 42% depending on the comparison group. This suggests representation in higher education can be increased through recruiting low socioeconomic high scorers, but inequality will persist with differences in early childhood human capital stock and non pecuniary utility.

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